Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is down across the Primary market, but not every area moves the same

By Chrissy Burghart

Real estate, Primary market

The one fact that changes what you should do: inventory has fallen sharply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,615 homes for sale across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 23.9% from a year before. Fewer choices mean sellers face less competition, and buyers need to compare areas more carefully.

Nationally, the picture is different. The National Association of Realtors reported U.S. inventory reached 1.60 million homes in September 2026. That is a broader pool than what buyers find here. Our market has tightened faster than the national trend suggests.

Sales are up, even as listings fell

More homes sold even with less to choose from. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 2,446 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 13.1% from the same period a year before. Pending sales also rose, reaching 2,299, up 5.6% year over year. Buyers are moving on what is there.

New listings slipped too. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 2,302 new listings in the Primary market for the same period, down 4% from a year before. Supply is not being replaced at the same pace it is being absorbed.

Rates are making buyers think harder

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.68%. Realtor.com reported the average mortgage rate on the market at 7.40% as of October 22, 2026. Rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025, according to Realtor.com, rising nearly 40 basis points over four weeks. That matters for what buyers can afford.

Not every ZIP code moves the same way

The market-wide drop in inventory hides real differences by area. Some ZIP codes tightened a lot. Others still carry more supply. Days on market range from 55 in Fort Myers 33967 to 143 in Naples 34103, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Median prices run from $370,000 in 34112 to $2,350,000 in 34102. That is not one market. It is many.

ZIP 34102 in Naples had 7.5 months of supply, down just 0.2 months from a year before. That is the loosest market in the group. ZIP 34119 had 3.4 months, down 2.4 months from a year before. Both are Naples, but they feel very different to a buyer or seller right now.

Speed varies just as much

In ZIP 33967 in Fort Myers, the Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median of 55 days on market. In ZIP 34103 in Naples, it was 143 days. Both are in the same Primary market. Pricing to the right ZIP code matters more than ever when inventory is this tight.

Prices: some up, some down

Not every price moved the same direction. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 34104 in Naples up 25.7% to $440,000. ZIP 34110 in Naples rose 39.9% to $867,500. But 34108 in Naples dropped 13% to $1,000,000. ZIP 34105 fell 11.4% to $522,500. A rising market overall does not mean every home gained. The National Association of Realtors reported U.S. prices up 1.3% in September 2026. Our market shows wider swings in both directions.

Where buyers moved fastest

Some areas saw a big jump in homes going under contract within two weeks of listing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 20% of homes in ZIP 34117 going under contract that fast, and 19% in both 34105 and 34119. In ZIP 33967 in Fort Myers, 27.7% of homes went under contract within two weeks. That is the highest share in the Primary market for this period.

What sellers are getting at the closing table

Sale-to-list ratios tell you how close sellers get to their asking price. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 34117 and 33967 both at 96.2%. ZIP 34135 came in at 95.4% and 34119 at 95.1%. At the other end, 34103 averaged 92.1% and 34102 averaged 92.6%. Pricing close to what buyers will pay still takes work in most of these ZIP codes.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. A home on a quiet cul-de-sac in 34119 and one near a main road in 34108 are both in the Primary market, but the numbers behind them are not the same. If you want to know where your home sits in this picture, text me.